Linux laptop success stirs up Western waters

Will HP, IBM and Dell push the open source OS in Microsoft territory?

30 May 2003

The "overwhelming" success of a Linux-based laptop sold by Hewlett-Packard in Thailand threatens to have far-reaching effects in Western Europe.

This week, a spokesperson for HP was waxing lyrical about how the middle-spec and low-cost laptop running the open source operating system had gone down like a storm in the Far Eastern country.

For 19,500 baht (£286), the 800MHz, 128Mb RAM and 20Gb Linux laptop could be yours. It was the first time HP had ever put Linux on a laptop and it was thanks to a Thai government initiative of affordable computers for all. An impressive 19,300 orders were taken on the first day, sparking concerns that HP would not be able to meet demand.

Before you could say bandwagon, Dell immediately started making noises about how it too would make Linux laptops available to cover demand.

Which is all wonderful but does beg the question: If Linux laptops have proved to be such a success in the Far East, and with HP and IBM making big play of their support for Linux, is it only a matter of time before they are made available in the West? Judging from the companies' responses to our questions, it looks extremely likely.

There are several factors to take into account here: Is there the demand in the West? Does HP, IBM et al have anything to gain/lose? And would Microsoft stand for it and/or be able to stop it?

Linux has two main advantages over Microsoft's ubiquitous Windows. One, it is cheaper to buy because Linux is open source and there is no licence fee. And two, Linux gives you significant freedom by not tying you in to one company.

In poorer parts of the world where computer infrastructure is still limited, the open-source, freely distributable Linux operating system is clearly a huge advantage. Their governments love it because not only does it come cheaper but also encourages widespread use among the population and gets the whole country wired faster and cheaper.

But what about the West where everyone owns a computer and can afford to pay Microsoft licences? Linux has become increasingly popular in the West but only really in big applications such as servers. Linux on the desktop, Linux as a consumer product is still very much an anti-Microsoft statement, the preserve of geeks.

That looks desperately close to changing however. While millions of consumers will require heavy persuasion to buy a computer without the familiar Windows look-and-feel, less emotional outfits are starting to buy into Linux as a desktop replacement. It makes good business sense, Linux increasingly has professional support services, and dare we say it, there may be a touch of anti-American feeling giving the whole impetus.

Once people grow used to a different operating system, once they realise it's cheaper and if buying it makes them feel good, migration from Windows to Linux cannot be far away. It's happening with businesses, it's happening with government, how long until that filters down to consumers?

Nowhere is this more clear at the moment than in Germany. Already the German government has installed Linux at various ministries. Linux lobbying associations are starting to rise in influence and confidence to the extent that this week, one (Linuxtag) has threatened to sue US software company if it doesn't supplied details of an alleged patent infringement. And this week, Munich city council dropped the bombshell that it would move all its 14,000 PCs from Windows NT to Linux, despite the fact that a special deal cooked up by Microsoft meant the move would initially work out more expensive.

But let's not be naïve here: the consumer market of Western Europe is Microsoft territory. As much as Microsoft has achieved over the years through restrictive contracts and corporate clout, it has managed just as much through the threat of force. Would IBM, HP and Dell really risk the ire of Microsoft by letting Linux loose in non-techy areas of the computer market?

Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is Yes. An IBM spokesman reminds us that Big Blue does not sell direct to consumers but that it already supports Linux through its distributors. The OS is there if someone wants to order it, in all conceivable formats - including on laptops. IBM is the front-runner in the contract to supply the Munich council contract and has invested a lot in Linux.

So if consumers want Linux laptops? "We do all that through resellers. If they say they want it, we will support them."

HP gives exactly the same message. Senior category manager at HP, Steven Gales, told us: "At this time we do not see significant demand but are in the process of certifying selected notebooks for Red Hat Linux to offer our customers choice. If our customers request Linux to be pre-loaded on a certified platform we will supply it, however the cost saving of doing this is dependent on volume." Put simply: If people ask for it we will supply.

Of course, HP also sells through resellers, so it would seem the resellers are in control here - would they risk upsetting Microsoft? The editor of channel newspaper Microscope, Simon Quick, seems to think so: "I think they would be quite happy with it, I don't think it would be a problem for the channel to sell Linux laptops."

Microsoft may still be very powerful, but so is HP these days. However the real answer is economics: "It's been a really tough few years for dealers," says Simon, "there's not loads of new technology, so right now if there was something they gets them in the door, that starts the sales talk, if there is some new story - perhaps a Microsoft versus Linux battle - then they would say 'terrific'."

Unfortunately, the one company that does sell direct to consumers - Dell - didn't even give a bland "we are always looking at changes in the market" and refused outright to discuss future possible products. It wasn't so restrained when it saw the gap in Thailand. However, again the demand question is there in its response: "Dell provides Linux for volume customers through our Custom Factory Installed service," we were told.

So will we see mainstream Linux laptops in the West soon? That all depends on whether people ask for it. The Munich decision may be the tip of an iceberg - and Microsoft can't afford to offer special deals to everyone to retain their business.

Linux will soon become a constant consideration in board decisions, and once employees get used to the operating system, they will want the same one at home. And if this happens, three of the world's biggest computer companies are all ready and willing to push Linux into the market.

What no one knows is how fast this will happen and how deep it will go.

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